Job seekers attend the Mega JobNewsUSA South Florida Job Fair held in the Amerant Bank Arena on September 25, 2025 in Sunrise, Florida.
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Employment growth was essentially flat in September, according to data from investment giant Carlyle that seeks to fill in data gaps created by the government shutdown.
The firm said its proprietary data showed job growth of just 17,000 for the month, which would be even less than the 22,000 gain in August reflected in Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
With the BLS shuttered and data releases suspended until the impasse between congressional Republicans and Democrats is resolved, Wall Street firms are rushing to provide alternative measures to paint a picture of where the U.S. economy is heading.
Carlyle’s data jibes somewhat with other releases showing little hiring growth.
Last week, payrolls processing firm ADP reported a loss of 32,000 jobs in the private sector, though that included a reduction stemming from adjustments to BLS revisions.
Outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas also reported last week that while layoffs declined in September, the level of planned hiring for firms hit its lowest since 2009, when the economy was still feeling the impact from the global financial crisis.
To be sure, while Carlyle’s data showed anemic payroll gains, other economic indicators painted a brighter picture.
The firm said underlying gross domestic product growth was running at a 2.7% annualized pace in September while business investment accelerated 4.8% on a three-month average annual rate. Carlyle also reported that consumer prices for energy declined 3.8% while services excluding shelter, a key Federal Reserve data point, rose 3.3%.
Carlyle said it derived its data from its “expansive global portfolio” that includes 277 companies, 694 real estate investments and 730,000 employees.
Though the firm saw weaker employment data, Goldman Sachs recently said its “underlying job growth” tracker indicated a gain of 80,000 positions in September. Goldman also reported that the labor market is loosening, meaning there are more workers than jobs, to levels not seen in 10 years.
A New York Fed survey released Monday indicated ongoing concern with the state of the labor market.
The central bank’s monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations for September showed that the share of those expecting the unemployment rate to be higher a year from now rose to 41.1%, up 2 percentage points from the prior month. Also, the mean probability of losing one’s job in the next year increased to 14.9%, up 0.4 percentage point.
However, the perceived probability of being able to find a job in three months after losing one’s current position rose to 47.4%, up from a series low 44.9% in August.
