Christina Locopo | CNBC
For economists, harbingers of a recession can include a slowdown in consumer spending and rising unemployment.
For the chronically online, indicators can range from the perceived fall of fake eyelashes to more commercials for online colleges. Or, maybe, it’s a skin care company selling eggs.
And for Sydney Brams, a Miami-based influencer and realtor, it’s a decline in prices on clothing resale platform Depop.
“I was literally running to my parents and my boyfriend, and I’m like, ‘Look at this. Look, something is very wrong,'” Brams told CNBC after seeing some Depop sellers “come back to Earth,” as she described it. “I feel like Chicken Little.”
Making a joke of so-called recession indicators in everyday life has gained traction in recent weeks as the stock market pullback and weak economic data raised anxiety around the health of the economy. This trend also underscores the uniquely sharp sense of financial dissatisfaction among America’s young adults.
Many of today’s young adults experienced childhood during the Great Recession and came of age as the pandemic threw everything from in-person work to global supply chains out of orbit. Now, they’re concerned about what’s been deemed a white-collar job market slowdown and President Donald Trump’s on-again-off-again tariff policies — the latter of which has battered financial markets in recent weeks.
To be clear, when they share their favorite recession indicators, they’re kidding — but they don’t see the future path of the U.S. economy as a laughing matter.
“It’s gallows humor,” said James Cohen, a digital culture expert and assistant professor of media studies at Queens College in New York. “This is very much a coping mechanism.”
These omens can be found across popular social media platforms such as X, TikTok and Instagram. Some users see cultural preludes to a recession in, say, Lady Gaga releasing her latest album or the quality of the new season of HBO’s “The White Lotus.” Others chalk up social trends such as learning to play the harmonica or wearing more brown clothing as forewarnings of a financial downturn on the horizon.
Social media users Sydney Michelle (@sydneybmichelle), left; Celeste in DC (@celesteiacevedo), and Sulisa (@ssclosefriendstory) share their personal “recession indicators” on TikTok.
Courtesy: Sydney Michelle | Celeste in DC | Sulisa | via TikTok
Just last week, several social media users saw a slam-dunk opportunity to employ variations of the joke when DoorDash announced a partnership with Klarna for users to finance food delivery orders. A spokesperson for Klarna acknowledged to NBC News that people needing to pay for meals on credit is “a bad indicator for society.”
Some content creators have made the humor an entry point to share budget-friendly alternatives for everyday luxuries that may have to go if wallets are stretched.
“We are heading into a recession. You need to learn how to do your nails at home,” TikTok user Celeste in DC (@celesteiacevedo) said in a video explaining how to use press-on nail kits as opposed to splurging at a salon.
Declining confidence
These jokes don’t exist in a vacuum. Closely followed data illustrates how this trend reflects a growing malaise among young people when it comes to the economy.
At the start of 2024, 18-to-34-year-olds had the highest consumer sentiment reading of any age group tracked by the University of Michigan. The index of this group’s attitude toward the economy has since declined more than 6%, despite the other age cohorts’ ticking higher.
This switch is particularly notable given that young people have historically had stronger readings than their older counterparts, according to Joanne Hsu, director of the Surveys of Consumers at Michigan.
A typically cheerier outlook can be explained by younger people being less likely to have additional financial responsibilities, such as children, Hsu said. But she added that this age bracket is likely grappling with rising housing costs and debt right now, while also feeling uncertainty tied to economic policy under the new White House.
“I have a suspicion that young people are starting to feel like — or have been feeling like — many markers of the American dream are much more difficult to reach now,” Hsu said.
Young people are also less likely to have assets such as property or investments that can buoy financial spirits when the economy flashes warning signs, according to Camelia Kuhnen, a finance professor at the University of North Carolina.
The potential for a recession, which is broadly defined as at least two consecutive quarters of the national economy contracting, has been on the minds of both Wall Street and Main Street. A Deutsche Bank survey conducted March 17-20 found the average global market strategist saw a nearly 43% chance of a recession over the next 12 months.
An index of consumer expectations for the future released Tuesday by the Conference Board slid to its lowest level in 12 years, falling well below the threshold that signals a recession ahead. Meanwhile, Google searches during a period in March for the word “recession” hit highs not seen since 2022.
This onslaught of news comes after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on March 16 that there were “no guarantees” the U.S. would avoid a recession. Bessent said a “detox” period is needed for the national economy, which he and other Trump administration officials have argued is too reliant on government spending.
‘The vibes are off’
Though the recession humor has had a yearslong history online, it’s gained momentum in recent weeks as the state of the economy has become a more common talking point, according to Cohen, the Queens College professor. While a recession indicator entry was added to the digital culture encyclopedia Know Your Meme only this month, the jokes have tracked back to at least 2019.
“Especially with Gen Z, there’s a lot of jokes with never being in a stable economic environment,” said Max Rosenzweig, a 24-year-old user experience researcher whose personal recession indicator was the number of people he’s seen wearing berets. “It’s funny, but it’s like, we’re making light of something that is scary.”
Cohen said he heard from Gen Z students that this type of humor helped them realize others are experiencing the same uncertainty. These students may not feel control over the country’s economic standing, he said, but they can at least find community and levity in a precarious moment.
Cohen sees the recent surge of this humor as a sort of “barometer” for what he calls the vibes around the economy. His conclusion: “The vibes are off.”
Brams sees a similar story playing out in South Florida and on social media. “I’m not going to lie, it just feels really grim,” the 26-year-old said.
But, “it’s not anything that me or my friend or my boyfriend or my parents can really do anything about,” she said. “There’s no choice but to just stay in your lane, try to keep your job, try to find joy where you can and just stay afloat.”
