Steven Chechette (C) speaks with a recruiter at the KeySource booth at the Mega JobNewsUSA South Florida Job Fair held in the Amerant Bank Arena on April 30, 2025, in Sunrise, Florida.
Joe Raedle | Getty Images
Clues on whether the U.S. economy is merely in a temporary tariff-induced funk or a more damaging longer-turn downtrend should come Friday when the Labor Department releases the April jobs report.
Economists expect nonfarm payrolls to post an increase of 133,000, which would be a steep slide from the 228,000 in March, according to the Dow Jones consensus. However, it would be only slightly below the 152,000 average for the first three months of the year and likely would be enough to hold the unemployment rate around 4.2%.
But a downside surprise could be perilous considering the recent spate of bad economic news and the prevailing angst over the way President Donald Trump is implementing tariffs against U.S. trading partners.
“If it’s around 150,000 give or take, I think all will be forgiven,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “So I think we’ll end the week feeling OK, not great, but OK. Things aren’t falling apart.”
However, Zandi and other economists say financial markets may want to brace for disappointment. Specifically, he has his eye on anything less than 100,000 for payrolls growth, which he expects would cause the dour economic feelings to take over.
“If the number’s 100,000 or anything south of that, then I think I’d watch out,” he said. “Then all the other data will take on greater importance, and people will be marking down their expectations. That could be a tough day in the markets.”
Bad news piles up
Investors this week had to digest a gross domestic product reading that showed the economy contracted 0.3% annualized in the first quarter. They also saw a weak private payrolls reading from ADP, Labor Department reports showing a steeper slide in job openings and an uptick in unemployment claims, plus a mixed bag on inflation readings.
Even with all that, Wall Street hung tough, pushing the Dow Jones Industrial Average near a 2% gain on the week as investors continued to focus on the latest tariff news out of the White House.
Still, a bad jobs report could quickly change that, and there are underlying indications of weakness.
ADP, a sometimes unreliable gauge for the nonfarm payrolls count, reported just 62,000 in private company hiring, well below expectations. At the same time, job openings fell to about 7.2 million, the lowest since September 2024.
Other recent indicators also don’t bode well for the jobs picture. The unemployment rate for recent college graduates surged to 5.8% in March, the highest since July 2021, while the underemployment rate spiked to 41.2%, the highest since February 2022, according to New York Federal Reserve data.
Job fears
Workers also are growing discontented with their situations.
Specifically, wage satisfaction hit its lowest level, at 54.8%, since November 2021, according to March data also from the New York Fed. At the same time, the average “reservation” wage, or the lowest salary acceptable to take a job, tumbled to $74,236, a slide of nearly 10% from the November 2024 peak.
There’s also the lingering concern over federal government layoffs as Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency slashed the federal workforce since President Donald Trump took over in January. Announced federal layoffs thus far have totaled 281,452, according to consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
However, the actual toll could be well higher: Atlanta Fed researcher M. Melinda Pitts estimates that including related hits on contractors and grant employees, the total impact could be on the order of 1.2 million. Those cuts, though, won’t be fully felt until later in the year after government severance checks run out.
In the interim, the jobs numbers likely will indicate a slowing economy, though not one falling off a cliff.
Citigroup forecasts job growth of 105,000, which “is not spectacular but given the slowdown in immigration it may be around the rate of job growth required to keep the unemployment rate unchanged,” Citi economist Andrew Hollenhorst wrote.
In addition to the headline payrolls number, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release wage information, which will be watched closely for signs that inflation is slowing. The Wall Street consensus is that average hourly earnings rose 0.3% in April, good for a 3.9% increase year over year, or slightly higher than in March.
The report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
