Sign at the entrance to a Walmart in Venice, Florida(L), and a T.J. Maxx store in Pinole, California.
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As more major retailers post earnings, one theme is clear: Value players are winning both the wealthy and the cash-strapped.
Walmart and TJX, T.J. Maxx’s parent company, stood apart from the pack this week by hiking their full-year forecasts and expressing optimism about the start of the holiday season. Both said sales have grown as they win shoppers across the income spectrum, in the same week other major U.S. retailers Home Depot, Lowe’s and Target cut their profit outlooks and said they saw consumer reluctance to make large purchases.
In an interview with CNBC, Walmart CFO John David Rainey said the big-box retailer has seen “value-seeking and choiceful” spending patterns by consumers for the past several quarters. He said “it stands to reason, if there’s a little incremental strain on the consumer, they’re only going to become more so, they’re going to look for more value.”
And TJX CEO Ernie Herrman said the company, which includes Marshalls and Home Goods, has seen a “strong start” to the holiday quarter and is “convinced that consumers will continue to seek out value.”
Shares of both Walmart and TJX rose on Thursday, even as the three major U.S. stock indexes turned negative.
The performance of the two retailers, which are both strongly associated with compelling deals, jumps out at a moment when investors, industry watchers and economists are trying to predict retail sales during the critical holiday season and the outlook for the U.S. economy next year. Their performance could bode well for other off-price chains, such as Ross and Burlington, and value-focused players, including Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Five Below and Costco, which will report their most recent earnings in the coming weeks.
In recent months, a mix of factors have made it difficult to gauge how retailers and the broader economy will fare in the months ahead. That includes jitters about the job market following major layoffs at companies including Amazon, Verizon, UPS and Target, and concerns that the stock market has been propped up by artificial intelligence companies, contributing to the risk of an bubble. A prolonged government shutdown also muddied the waters by delaying the release of recent jobs and inflation data.
There have also been contradictions between what consumers say and do. Consumer sentiment has tumbled to nearly the lowest level ever, even as retail sales grew stronger in October, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor.
That’s led to murky holiday expectations. For example, the National Retail Federation predicted that holiday sales will grow by 3.7% to 4.2% year over year and top $1 trillion for the first time, while consulting firm PwC said consumers plan to cut their holiday spending average by 5% compared to the year-ago holiday season.
Home Depot, Lowe’s and Target put their thumbs on the scale this week. All three lowered their full-year profit forecasts and spoke of pressure on their businesses as customers hesitate to take on bigger projects or make pricier purchases.
For Home Depot and Lowe’s, the lack of consumer confidence may prolong a period of conservative spending driven by lower housing turnover. For more than two years, they have seen customers take on smaller home improvement projects rather than splurges like remodels and renovations that cost more or require financing. That pattern has held, even though they cater to U.S. consumers who typically own a home and have benefitted from home equity gains.
Lowe’s CEO Marvin Ellison said even homeowners are “not immune” to feeling shaken by news headlines about the government shutdown, higher tariffs and other policy changes that could hit their wallets — which could encourage price-sensitivity and procrastination on purchases. He said the home improvement retailer has focused on ways it can move the needle with its own strategies, such as expanding its merchandise assortment and attracting more home professionals as customers.
Target, which has faced some struggles of its own making, expects shoppers will watch prices and make trade-offs during the holiday season, such as spending more on gifts and less in other areas like decor or food, Chief Commercial Officer Rick Gomez said on a call with reporters. The retailer has cut prices on 3,000 food and home essentials and tried to attract shoppers with low opening price points, such as $1 Christmas tree ornaments.
At Walmart, Rainey told CNBC the company has “been gaining [market] share among all income cohorts, but as we noted for several quarters, they’re more pronounced in the upper-income segment.”
For TJX, Herrman said the company’s focus on value is a competitive edge. He said on the company’s earnings call that it’s blend of “brand, fashion, quality and price sets us apart from many other retailers and has served us extremely well through many kinds of retail and economic environments over the course of our nearly 50-year history.”
In a research note, retail analyst and Telsey Advisory Group CEO Dana Telsey said TJX’s repeated earnings beats “highlight the strength of its value-focused proposition, which continues to resonate with consumers amid an increasingly price-sensitive environment.”
Customers of all incomes are coming to TJX’s stores and website, but lower-income shoppers drove sales growth in most of its geographies in its latest quarter, CFO John Klinger said on an earnings call.
While Walmart and TJX have weathered cracks in the economy better than many other retailers, they’re not immune to economic weakness.
Walmart’s Rainey said that despite its strong sales forecast for the year, the retailer has spotted “pockets of moderation” among low-income shoppers as they feel more pinched than other customers. On the company’s earnings call on Thursday, he referred to the sharp disparity in wage growth between high- and low-income U.S. consumers.
He also told CNBC that the retailer noticed a pullback by customers who stopped receiving Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, benefits during the government shutdown. But Rainey said, “that’s starting to rebound now that people are receiving those funds again.”
“We’re seeing the same things that that others are, and we’re keeping a watchful eye on it,” he said on the company’s earnings call. “But again, I think Walmart is better insulated than just about anybody.”
