A version of this article first appeared in CNBC’s Inside Wealth newsletter with Robert Frank, a weekly guide to the high-net-worth investor and consumer.
More than a third of the condo apartments sold in Manhattan over roughly the past year sold at a loss, although the top end of the market fared better, according to a new report.
Despite the steady stream of headlines about eye-popping sales and soaring prices in Manhattan real estate, the median price per square foot for Manhattan condos is essentially flat from a decade ago, according to a report from Brown Harris Stevens. One in three condo resales between July 2024 and June 2025 were sold at a loss, according to the report. When including inflation, transaction costs and renovations, the share of losses by condo sellers is likely even higher, according to real estate analysts.
While the data didn’t include co-ops, analysts say co-op prices have generally fared the same or slightly worse than condos.
“For the last decade, Manhattan has essentially been moving sideways,” said Jonathan Miller, CEO of Miller Samuel, the appraisal and real estate research firm.
The long-term price weakness in Manhattan stands in stark contrast to much of the country, where home prices are up substantially since the pandemic, creating a widespread affordability crisis. Only 2% of home sellers nationally who purchased homes before the pandemic are at risk of selling at a loss, according to Redfin.
Manhattan is still among the most expensive markets in the country, especially on a per-square-foot basis. The median price for Manhattan sales in the third quarter was $1.2 million, while the average is just under $2 million, according to Miller Samuel and Douglas Elliman. Yet over the longer term, an analysis of resales finds that the timing of purchases in Manhattan typically matters more than location.
Condo owners who bought before 2010 have fared the best. The median gains for those in that cohort who sold over roughly the past year were between 29% and 45%, according to the Brown Harris report. Prices started to rise after the financial crisis, peaking in 2016. That means for those who bought between 2011 and 2015, the sale gains in the past year were modest, around 11%.
The biggest losers were those who bought after 2016. Half of the buyers who bought between 2016 and 2020 sold at a loss over the surveyed period. Among those who bought between 2021 and 2024, the gains were slim – although some buyers who got deals during the depths of the Covid downturn in late 2020 and early 2021 may fare better.
Adding in other costs of buying, selling and ownership would further add to the losses. Transaction costs in Manhattan can range from 6% to 10%, according to brokers. Renovations and improvements also aren’t counted in the losses, nor are maintenance fees or taxes. Adjusting for inflation would also increase the losses and lower returns.
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, co-director of the Paul Milstein Center for Real Estate at the Graduate School of Business at Columbia University, said inflation has increased 36% over the past decade.
“So if I had invested in a Manhattan condo in September 2015 (close to the peak) and sold it in August 2025 for the same nominal price, a 0% nominal return, I actually lost 36% in real terms,” he said. “This is surprising since many people think of real estate as a good inflation hedge.”
He noted that the Case-Shiller national home price index went up 89% in the 10 years between September 2015 and August 2025, “a lot better than in NYC and also far higher than the 36% inflation.”
The reasons for Manhattan’s “lost decade” in condo prices are as varied as they are disputed. The cap on state and local tax deductions that began in 2018 put pressure on prices and demand, as did a 2019 rent law. The migration of some higher earners to Florida during Covid also added to real estate fears, although the population and demand quickly rebounded.
The one exception to the trend was the top of the market. Those who bought and sold apartments for $10 million or more made double-digit profits, no matter when they initially bought.
Brokers and analysts say the increased concentration of wealth at the top, rising stock markets and ceaseless demand from those who are less affected by economic and market cycles has powered continued gains in the luxury market.
“The higher end has fared better over the decade, especially in, let’s say, the top 4% of the market,” Miller said. “The reason is Wall Street and financial markets. And the ability to buy in cash, independent of interest rates.”
Two thirds of the apartment deals done in the third quarter were done in cash, Miller said, far above the historical average of around 53% and showing the continued dependence of the Manhattan market on wealthy buyers who don’t need mortgages.
In a market defined by frequent ups and downs, brokers say the current upswing presents an opportunity for both buyers and sellers.
“I’m bullish and have a very positive outlook for New York real estate,” said Jared Antin, executive director at Brown Harris Stevens and a co-author of the report. “While some people may have lost money on the deals [over the decade], the losses were negligible. It speaks to the blue chip nature of the Manhattan market. Does everyone want to make money on their real estate? Of course. But this market is incredibly stable.”
Sellers who bought during the dip in 2020 and early 2021 could also see profits when they start to sell, Antin said.
Still, with median prices hovering near all-time highs and uncertainty around the upcoming mayoral election, many potential buyers prefer to stay on the sidelines and rent, even if they can afford to buy. The number of households in New York City making more than $1 million a year who are renting more than doubled between 2019 and 2023, to 5,661, according to a report from RentCafe.
What’s more, signed contracts for high-end apartments — priced at $4 million or more — fell 39% in September, according to Olshan Realty, following increases in August and July. Brokers blame a rapid decline in inventory and lack of new supply from condo developments rather than a decline in demand or fears that Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist, would become the next mayor of New York City.
“There certainly is a downside risk to policy,” Miller said. “But as we’ve seen in the past, those fears are usually overblown.”
