A United Airlines Boeing 737-MAX 8 aircraft departs at San Diego International Airport en route to New York on Aug. 24, 2024.
Kevin Carter | Getty Images
United Airlines on Wednesday forecast higher-than-expected earnings for the fourth quarter after a rocky start to 2025.
The carrier expects to earn between $3 and $3.50 a share for the last three months of the year, compared with analysts’ estimate of $2.86 a share.
United has been expanding its flying capacity, while its rivals have scaled back some of their growth plans after a glut of flights weighed on fares this year. The airline increased capacity 7% in the third quarter over last year. Unit passenger revenue for the three months ended Sept. 30 fell 3.3% for domestic travel and 7.1% for international. Sales from its lucrative loyalty program rose 9%.
CEO Scott Kirby on an earnings call on Thursday that the carrier expects earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization from the loyalty program to double by the end of the decade.
“We’re just beginning to realize the full potential of the loyalty program,” he said.
In an interview last month, Kirby defended the airline’s growth plan and said the carrier was winning loyal customers through its network, new technology like complimentary inflight Wi-Fi, refreshed cabins and new lounges.
“Those investments over almost a decade, combined with great service from our people, have allowed United to win and retain brand-loyal customers, leading to economic resilience even with macro economic volatility through the first three quarters of the year and significant upside as the economy and demand are improving in the fourth quarter,” Kirby said in a release Wednesday.
Still, for the third quarter, United beat earnings expectations, although its revenue fell short of estimates.
Here is what United Airlines reported for the quarter that ended Sept. 30 compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on estimates compiled by LSEG:
- Earnings per share: $2.78 adjusted vs. $2.62 expected
- Revenue: $15.23 billion vs. $15.33 billion expected
United’s third-quarter revenue was $15.23 billion, up 2.6% from $14.84 billion last year. Net income fell 1.7% to $949 million or $2.90 a share. Adjusting for one-time items including debt, among other things, United posted income of $909 million or $2.78 a share.
The carrier is vying with Delta Air Lines to win over more affluent travelers who splurge on seats, and it has expanded its global network with far-flung destinations like Greenland and Mongolia. United said in the third quarter, its premium-cabin revenue, which includes first class and other, roomier seats, rose 6%. United’s sales from no-frills basic economy 4% year over year.
In the spring and early summer, United and other carriers trimmed their earnings forecasts they made at the start of the year, after passenger demand dipped amid on-again, off-again tariffs, and an oversupply of flights weighed on airfare.
