Investors are entering 2025’s first-quarter earnings season with a huge cloud of uncertainty hanging over them — thanks primarily to U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
The scale of duties announced in April, along with the volatility injected by subsequent updates and reversals in policy, have so far exceeded even the most bearish forecasts.
Negotiators from the European Union and the U.K. are in talks with U.S. officials to try to alleviate their respective 25% and 10% blanket tariffs, while also grappling with broader tariffs on steel, aluminum and autos. Meanwhile, the rest of the world watches on to see whether red-hot tensions between Washington and Beijing will cool, averting a trade war between the two biggest economies that would have far-ranging repercussions.
Two major earnings reports have already landed in Europe, providing an indication of the tone to come.
Luxury giant LVMH said its categories such as beauty, wines and spirits were vulnerable to a pullback in spending by “aspirational clientele.” Dutch semiconductor firm ASML, which manufacturers chipmaking machines critical to global tech, said tarifs were “creating a new uncertainty” around demand. But neither was able to quantify the scale of the impact.
Here are five other major European firms yet to report earnings that could face big hits from the tariff turmoil.
Maersk
Danish shipping giant Maersk, a bellwether for global trade, is poised to report first-quarter earnings on May 8. Shares of the company have been highly volatile in recent weeks, moving sharply as investors react to the Trump administration’s back-and-forth tariff announcements.
An escalating trade war between the U.S. and China, the world’s two largest economies, has been a major source of concern for the maritime and transport sector.
Analysts expect Maersk’s first-quarter earnings before interest, depreciation, taxes and amortization (EBITDA) to come in at $2.3 billion, according to an LSEG-compiled consensus, down from $3.6 billion in the final three months of 2024.
Maersk earlier this month described the U.S. tariffs as “significant” and — in their current form — clearly not good news for the global economy, stability and trade.
“It is still too early to say with any confidence how this will ultimately unfold. We need to see how countries will respond to these plans — and to what extent they choose to negotiate, impose counter-tariffs, adjust import duties, or pursue a combination of these measures,” the company said in a statement on April 3.
Shell
Shell is scheduled to report first-quarter earnings on May 2. It comes after the British oil giant in March announced plans to boost shareholder returns, cut costs and double down on its liquefied natural gas (LNG) push.
In a later trading update, Shell trimmed its first-quarter LNG production outlook, citing unplanned maintenance, including in Australia.
A Shell logo in Austin, Texas.
Brandon Bell | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Oil and gas stocks have been caught up in tariff-fueled market turmoil in recent weeks, with energy majors exposed to growing recession fears, subdued oil demand and falling crude prices.
Analysts at wealth manager Hargreaves Lansdown said earlier this month that Shell’s “sharpened focus on efficiency and quality leaves it well-placed to grow free cash flow and shareholder distributions.”
But it can’t control the oil price, Hargreaves Lansdown noted, “so, investors have to be prepared for the relatively high level of volatility that accompanies the entire sector.”
Shell is expected to report first-quarter adjusted earnings of $5.14 billion, according to an LSEG-compiled consensus, down from $7.73 billion in the same period a year ago. The energy major reported adjusted earnings $3.66 billion in the final three months of 2024.
Equity analysts have singled out Shell as the best capital allocator among its European peers, pointing toward the firm’s steadfast commitment to cost discipline under CEO Wael Sawan.
Volkswagen
Germany’s Volkswagen is one of many automotive firms expected to take a hit from tariffs — particularly those on Canada and Mexico — though results out April 30 should give a clearer indicaion of how much it expects to be able to shoulder through operations in Chattanooga, Tennessee.
The U.S. in April implemented a 25% charge on all foreign cars imported into the country, which appears to have already caused some panic-buying.
Volkswagen’s Chief Financial Officer Arno Antlitz told CNBC last month the company was in favor of open markets but already felt “like an American company” due to its thousands of U.S. employees.
However, analysts warn tariffs are especially negative for German carmakers which export thousands of vehicles a year to the U.S., while many cars produced in the country still require European-made parts.
Volkswagen is expected to produce higher year-on-year revenue in the first quarter, up to 77.6 billion euros ($88.2 billion) from 75.5 billion euros, an LSEG-compiled consensus shows. Earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) are seen dipping to 4.03 billion euros from 4.6 billion euros.
Lufthansa
As geopolitical tensions mount, some have questioned whether travel demand will suffer or trends will change — and the results of German airline group Lufthansa, due April 29, could hold some clues.
Lufthansa CEO Carsten Spohr told CNBC in early March that he expected global demand to drive “significantly” higher profit in 2025 and had not seen any dent in transatlantic bookings. But a lot has changed since then, with the scale of Trump’s tariffs and rhetoric fueling public anger and even boycotts of U.S. products.
A Lufthansa Airlines plane taxiing for takeoff as an United Airlines plane lands at San Francisco International Airport (SFO) in San Francisco, California, United States on February 7, 2025.
Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty Images
Figures for March published by the International Trade Administration showed a 17.2% year-on-year fall in visitor arrivals from Western Europe to the U.S., against a 3.4% dip from Asia and a 17.7% increase from the Middle East.
Lufthansa Group, which includes the German flag carrier along with SWISS, Austrian Airlines, Brussels Airlines and Italy’s ITA Airways, has already been grappling with challenges including strikes, global price pressures and Boeing aircraft delivery delays.
According to an LSEG-compiled consensus, analysts expect the group to report revenue of around 8.07 billion euros in the first quarter, up from 7.4 billion euros the previous year, and a roughly $630 million loss in EBIT, trimmed from a $871 million loss year-on-year and down from $482 million profit the prior quarter.
Novo Nordisk
Drugmakers have little idea how their access to the critical U.S. market will be impacted in the coming months.
The Trump administration said last week that it had opened an investigation into how importing certain pharmaceuticals affects national security, widely seen as a prelude to tariffs on drugs — also suggested to be happening in the coming months by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.
There remains no clarity over what size the tariffs will be, and when or even if they will come into effect.
For Denmark’s Novo Nordisk, Europe’s second-largest listed company, that leaves exposed the U.S. sales of its hugely popular obesity and diabetes treatments Ozempic and Wegovy. Traders will be hoping its May 7 results give an indication of how it is preparing for that, and how much can be offset by its “very significant” manufacturing set-up in the U.S.
Emily Field, head of European pharmaceuticals research at Barclays, told CNBC earlier this month that tariffs were the “No. 1 question on investors’ minds.”
— CNBC’s Karen Gilchrist and Annika Kim Constantino contributed reporting.
